Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index (EMI) declined slightly again in the fourth quarter but remains well above the 50-mark. EMI fell by 2.0 points to 54.1 in the fourth quarter, from 56.1 in the previous quarter.
A summary of the full year 2026 shows that EMI remained above the 50-mark across all quarters of the year, which has not occurred since 2022. This shows that Swedish export companies maintain a clearly positive outlook despite looming global risks.
When assessing future prospects, export managers are particularly optimistic about the expected profitability of export sales.
“Swedish companies are at the forefront in several fields currently attracting large global investments, including AI and digital infrastructure, defence, and renewable energy systems. This is a driver of optimistic sentiment,” explains Lena Sellgren, Chief Economist at Business Sweden.
The EMI current and EMI forecast subindices fell by 1.2 points to 55.2 and 2.8 points to 53.0, respectively. At regional level, the index for expected export demand declined in all regions except Asia, where it recovered. At the same time, the index for Western Europe remains high at 57.0 – above its historical average.
Optimism also holds firm regarding demand from Central and Eastern Europe, as well as North America. Conversely, export companies have a gloomy view of expected demand from South America and the Middle East, Türkiye, and Africa.
Download the report for a full overview of the survey results.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 4 February 2027.
Export manager's index Q4 2026
About the analysis
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2027
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
4 February: EMI Q1
6 May: EMI Q2
26 August: EMI Q3
4 November: EMI Q4
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